Crashing waves vs. rising tides: Overturning prior views about how AI could overtake human workers

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has said that AI could surpass “almost all humans at almost everything” shortly after 2027. While AI’s capabilities are certainly improving, such rapid progress might seem at odds with findings that show AI is still failing at 95%+ of remote freelance projects, and continues to struggle with hallucination, long term planning, and forms of abstract reasoning that humans find easy. But recent work from METR has found evidence that LLMs can gain capabilities in rapid surges—jumping from succeeding almost never to almost always in just a few years. If this is true across the economy, it could mean that workers could be blindsided by AI advances.

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